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Those first three are the Broncos' first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the Superbowl, but they didnt score many touch New York didnt want Buffalos explosive offense on the field, so it grinded out the clock on the ground and ended up winning the time of possession battle by about 20 minutes. Yes, the New York Giants knocked off the 18-0 New England Patriots. As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. Carolina Panthers +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total), The Panthers were a fantastic 8-4 against the spread as an underdog last year, and theyre going to be underdogs frequently again this year. ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. Seriously, the Vikings are never allowed to make another Super Bowl. If Murray can stay healthy, the sky's the limit for this team. The game wasnt nearly as close as the score indicates, though. Ill assume you didnt watch the A better offensive line will help Cousins out immensely, especially with playmakers like Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielenand Irv Smith. Tennessee already has the game's best running back in Derrick Henry and one of the league's best big-play receivers in A.J. The AFC West belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs, but second place is there for the taking. The Texans did finish 4-12 last season, even as Watson reached career highs in completion percentage (70.2), passing yards (4,823), touchdown passes (33). Despite the memorable moments, this game was a bit of a letdown with two Hall of Fame quarterbacks not putting on the offensive show we expected. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. Detroit Lions +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total), There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins., But the schedule is brutal six road games against playoff teams from 2020! And it isn't particularly bullish on their prospects. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. Chicago Bears +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total). A solid team all around, but more importantly, proficient on offense and defense. If Watson doesn't play in 2021, the Texans will be competing for the top overall pick in the 2022 draft. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. San Francisco 49ers +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total), Tricky to put San Francisco here given the uncertainty at QB, but theres no way they actually start 21-year-old Trey Lance, right?. The game that gave us all of those 28-3 jokes. The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. It is not that these teams were not deserving of a Super Bowl, but rather that they do not stack up when compared to the greatest units the NFL has ever seen. 15. But the outputs are all the same: We're still talking football -- and about the chances of each team's success -- which now includes 17 regular-season games and an expanded playoff field. On footballs biggest stage we want games featuring memorable teams, star players, plays that well never forget and compelling storylines. Defense wins championshipsor at least they should. Tom Brady led the offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to score 36.8 points per game. We have all heard this "Cinderella story" one too many times, but it's worth going over for the purposes of this piece. Terry Bradshaw and Franco Harris took over the game from there. Miami Dolphins +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), Miami led the NFL in two categories that they are unlikely to duplicate: takeaways (29) and 3rd down defense (31%); they were also seventh in red zone defense. The game was expected to be a blowout Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points and it was. There are no arguments to be made: This is the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. Trent Dilfer. For starters, the NFC has nine road games this season, so a team from that conference was always likely to occupy the top spot. The Chiefs defense also surrendered 31 points. Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. The agony of defeat. This time, he didnt need a miracle catch to beat New England thanks to his sublime pass to Mario Manningham on the game-winning drive. Reporting on what you care about. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. For a team with quarterback uncertainty, it could be much worse. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. Washington led 24-3 at one point. Yes, the Chiefs -- not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers -- are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. Joe Namath may have guaranteed a Super Bowl III win over the Baltimore Colts, but he didn't say anything about being the best team of all time. The Philadelphia Eagles were the most recent team to leave the "never won a Super Bowl" club, but the league only has three first-time Super Bowl winners since the start of the 2009 season. Los Angeles could put itself in position to contend for a playoff spot. Los Angeles Rams +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total). Brett Favre was brilliant in his only Super Bowl win. A 133 record, and a top 5 offense and defense, this was the derailing of a potential dynasty. Buffalo also addedEmmanuel Sanders to the mix, making the passing game even more formidable. They're the fifth-best team in football and have the fourth-best chance to win it all with a 6% shot, according to FPI. Atlanta is going to miss Jones' big-play ability -- and has a defense set to give up big plays of its own. There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. 1 pick than the 2021 Houston Texans, at 24%. The most interesting thing about this Super Bowl remains Hank Strams micd up footage. Ranking 12 teams that never won a Super Bowl by best chance The Jaguars are still going to be exciting to watch in 2021 as Urban Meyer is the best college coach to enter the NFL in years, having arguably the most talented quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in Trevor Lawrence. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. Kirk Cousins may not be elite, but he's a pretty good quarterback. That alone earned the game a spot this high on the list. IMPORTANT NOTE: I used my own mathematical point system involving team records, offensive production, and defensive production to determine the order. But the Super Bowl? I did not mean to rhyme there. Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. Well, they play in a division that produced three playoff teams last year. Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. The game itself may not be memorable but Marcus Allens 191-yard performance, which included the greatest run in Super Bowl history, pushes it into the top-30. Id say so, yes.. 5. New Orleans Saints +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), The most puzzling number on the board, as Im much lower on the Saints than this.. While Kansas City's 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team's, FPI is also saying that there's a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. Watch more top videos, highlights, and B/R original content, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. The Bengals should be better, but they aren't close to competing for a championship yet -- especially residing in the AFC North. What Allen accomplished in 2020 was MVP-caliber, even if he didn't take home the league's highest individual honor. W. 23-20. Maybe the most controversial one on the list. Peyton Manning winning his second ring bumps this one up a few spots. It did earn him a bunch of money. Here's everything we know, QB Young 5-10 1/8, 204 pounds at NFL combine, Sources: Patriots tell QB Hoyer he's being cut, Horns' Robinson: Versatility worthy of early pick, Jones: Not fixated on Cowboys' drought, just '23, Sources: Raiders plan franchise tag for Jacobs, WR Addison to Steelers' Pickett: 'Come get me', Wolverines' Turner wows with 4.26 40 at combine, Top QB prospect Levis eager to unleash 'cannon', Everything you need to know about Geno Smith's contract negotiations. Webworst defense to win super bowlaiken county sc register of deeds worst defense to win super bowl To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. Its more fun to speculate on the Bears QB race than it is their actual Super Bowl chances., 24. WebThe Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. Eli Manning did it to the Patriots again. That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. Brady and Belichick established the Patriots as a dynasty with their third Lombardi in four years. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. Dallas Cowboys +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl.. It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. And no one has it rougher than the Bears in 2021. So much needs to go right for the Broncos to get into the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. Three different QBs started six games. When you have to play the two toughest divisions in the NFL NFC West, AFC North the uphill climb is real. It all makes for a nice story, but the fact remains that the Giants were not a superb team. Unsung, their defense only allowed 17.1 points per game. "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). This 11-5Oakland Raiders teamfinished second in the AFC West in an era when there were only three divisions. Historically, those are difficult to duplicate.. Although they have one less win, there stats still propel them ahead of the '86 team. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first conference championship game appearance since 1993 while the Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game since 1995. All rights reserved. It seems odd to think of Terry Bradshaw as a problem, but in 1974 he took over for Joe Gilliam. This team is just two years removed from the AFC Championship Game and is in position to "win now." It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year The defense ranked just 24th in the league that year, and a questionable call known as the "Tuck Rule" against the Oakland Raiders in the divisional round helped the Patriots reach the Super Bowl when many believed they did not belong. You can make a case that every team that endured the best shots from every one of their opponents throughout the season, found a way to win enough Theyre basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery). Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. Peyton Manning needed the Saints and Tracy Porter to not come marching in. John Elway finally won his ring in a well-played game that featured one of the best performances by a running back in Super Bowl history. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. The AFL just wasn't ready yet, but they were still very good for AFL standards with an 11-2-1 record. Another Broncos blowout. One of the bigger mismatches in Super Bowl history, this one gets bonus points for being the first one and the Chiefs actually keeping things interesting for 30 minutes after going into the half trailing by only four points. The one Peyton let get away.